Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Following the Money: using the market to forecast the future

Equipment, long distance, and carrier companies are not being valued in the market. The market sees value in user generated content and community development.

The market value chain can be seen as constructed of: 1)Authors (NBC, Music Artists), 2)Marketing (YouTube, Facebook), 3)Distribution (Comcast, Verizon).

Authors: glut, near free

Marketing: self-service, find what you want, widgets to help you, click-competitive, advertising driven. This is where the money is!

Distributors: riddled with natural monopoly issues, huge infrastructure investments, trouble monetizing services in face of P2P Marketers…

Some thoughts on where things are going…
•One global network: the internet, minimal govt regulation (except nation-state censorship)
•Devices: many and diverse, consumer owned, interchangeable
•Internet access services: intermodal competitive (cable, fiber, wireless, WiMAX), minimal regulation, financially challenged
•Internet content hubs: search engines, social networks, megablogs
•Everything goes onto the internet backbone: voice, TV, Movies, conferencing

The need for different business models: discussed a business model framework called VISOR (Value Proposition, Interface experience, Service Platform, Organizing model, and Revenue model). Provides common language and structure to discuss alternative business models.

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